Every once in a while, you're going to have to endure a sports post from me. I write a lot about my faith, family, books, and other creative outlets. However, I'm also a jock at heart.
Anyways, if you keep reading, I'm going to go ahead and tell you who is going to be in the Super Bowl. Yes, this year's Super Bowl, number 56. It's going to take place on February 13, 2022 in Los Angeles. Well, it could end up taking place in Dallas if omicron continues to rage and California shuts everything down. Regardless, it is set to take place in a little over a month.
Today is January 6, 2022. On this day, I am going to tell you the teams that will be playing for the title. And, it's not just a simple prediction. I am basing this on a real analytic that has statistically been extremely accurate over the last several years.
The reason I know the teams that are likely to be in the big game is because I'm looking at POINT DIFFERENTIAL. Obviously, I know there are other factors that can come into play. COVID, injuries, matchups and timing, as well as some teams just getting hot at the right time can also come into play. But, bear with me for a minute.
You're probably aware of this stat and may have heard this argument before. However, it has consistently told us who the final teams are going to be year after year.
This has been a fun NFL season. There's been a lot of parity. I've enjoyed professional football way more than I've enjoyed college football this year (with the exception of getting to watch the Army Black Knights live and in person). College football only seems interested in re-runs. At the end of the day, people decide who plays for the title. Teams don't decide it on the field. We could have all accurately predicted that Alabama was going to be in the title game way back in August. No surprise.
Well, in a way, the NFL may not be surprising either if you look at specific metrics.
16 of the last 20 conference title participants have been in the NFL's TOP 5 in point differential. If you're quick at math, you know that's 80%. Not bad, but may not seem that impressive either. Well, 80% of the Super Bowl participants in the last 5 years also were in the top five of point differential (PD).
Digging a little deeper, 17 of the 20 (85%) conference title participants have been in the TOP 3 in PD, in their respective conferences.
All 10 Super Bowl participants in the last five years hailed from the TOP 3 in PD, in their respective conferences.
As far as Super Bowl winners.....
The last 5 Super Bowl winners were in the top five of PD in the NFL.
7 of the last 8 winners were in the top five of PD in the NFL.
These are staggering stats!!
So, which teams currently fit into this category? Granted, there is still one more week of regular season football left. However, let's just look for fun.
Currently in the AFC, PD looks like this....
1. Buffalo Bills +177
2. New England Patriots +168
3. Kansas City Chiefs +112
In the NFC....
1. Dallas Cowboys +147
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +134
3. L.A. Rams/Arizona Cardinals (tied) +91
Statistically, one of these 7 teams will win the Super Bowl based on PD:
-Bills
-Pats
-Chiefs
-Cowboys
-Bucs
-Rams
-Cardinals
BUT.......
Hold the phone.
There's always an exception to the rule. Right?
Remember, 17 of the 20 (85%) conference title participants have been in the TOP 3 in PD, in their respective conferences. However, two of the exceptions have been Aaron Rodgers' led Green Bay Packers teams. Hmmmm......interesting.
So, how can we determine who will win it all?
When we try to break down which of the TOP 6 teams in PD typically win the Super Bowl, we don't get as clear-cut certainty. Meaning, any of them can win. However, what we can count on, based on recent history is that the last 2 years, the third ranked team in PD in the AFC has reached the Super Bowl. And, both years its been the Chiefs. The Chiefs again sit at number 3 in the AFC in PD. So, I am predicting the Chiefs go to the Super Bowl again this year.
In the NFC, the Super Bowl participant the last 5 years has been a team with at least a PD of +137. It's not always the highest team that wins, but its someone well over +100. That leaves the Cowboys and the Buccaneers. Well, the last couple of times this has happened, the lower seed always wins out, which means the Cowboys currently have the advantage. I'm gonna also say, based on the fact that Dallas holds the higher PD, that they are the likely candidate to fill the spot.
Thus, I'm predicting (based primarily on PD), that we are going to see a Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys Super Bowl.
You heard it here first!
By the way, I don't gamble. I also don't encourage you to gamble. Please don't go lay money down on this "sure thing". Just have fun with it. I mean, there's still one more week and the PD could change. Also, there's still the exception-breaking Aaron Rodgers and the fact that Derrick Henry is back for the Titans that could throw a wrench into this whole mess.
However, for now, I'll stick with my prediction.
SUPER BOWL LVI
Kansas City 31 Dallas 18
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